Darin Bradley

So, it has a name now—well, that's something.

More interesting to me, however, is the newest tide of unease washing over economists: "6 double dip warning signs"*

I am not surprised. Look, there really wasn't any reason for everyone to start hollering that the recession was over. Yes, things were turning upward, ever so slightly. New unemployment claims per month were dropping, new layoffs per month were dropping, and home values were supposedly "bottoming out."** Everyone—citizens, administrations, economists—was so eager and so primed for any sign of recovery that what gains we were making were being blown out of proportion. It's the equivalent of cheering after floating in an ark for 40 days, only to find out on day 41 that the water was now five feet shallower than it had been. You're still screwed, but, Oh, great day in the mornin'!

The reality is that while fresh unemployment claims, fresh layoffs, etc. etc. were dropping, they were still going on, and crude steadily started trading higher again. All of this was adding to the compound whole of how much "bad" had already happened. So we bought a bunch of new cars? So what—we did so because we were getting massive trade-in values. So some people were buying homes (largely, those who were already preparing to buy them anyway)—so what? They did this because the rest of us were paying into the idea of giving them $8k-off coupons. Good ideas, all of them. Necessary ideas, even, but it wasn't/isn't magic, and it looks like some economists are starting to realize that there's nothing underwriting the "recovery."

Which is what most of us who have been struggling through this have been saying all along: What recovery?

*Srsly. Why does AP style not capitalize things in titles?!
**Read, "Getting closer to hitting rock bottom." This was only good news to Tyler Durden.

The recession is over! Break out the champagne and the credit cards—it's time to get back to normal!

Five More Banks Fail.

2009 total: 120 (to date)
2008 total: 25
2007 total: 2
2006 total: 0

source

You may remember that I sold my first novel, Noise, back in 2008. Well, we've moved through the run-of-the-mill behind-the-scenes stuff (edits, copy edits, acknowledgments, etc.), and I've finally finished the very-maddening code behind the first page (many more to come) of the promotional website for the book (and received the "okay" to share it with you): Salvage Country.

What does "Salvage" have to do with Noise? What is Salvage?

You'll learn.

Go. Be teased.

Salvage Country

You may have already seen this over at io9, but just in case you didn't, let me introduce you to Paul Doucet's latest short film (shot on the totally rad RED ONE digital camera), "Bunker." io9 writer Annalee Newitz aptly bills the short as "an existential post-apocalypse." Not only is it beautiful, it also channels some great ideas from, for example, David Markson's Wittgenstein's Mistress and Roger Zelazny's "Go Starless in the Night."

full article

(Thanks to Casey Boyle for sending this one my way.)

This has already largely been pointed out, but I figured I'd toss one out there, too.

Today, Issue 12 of Farrago's Wainscot went live. Go, read—I think it's Support Our 'Zines Day.

Issue 12 is also the final issue—we hope you enjoyed the run.

Third largest bank failure of 2009 announced* (along with three other banks).

Bringing the total this year to 81.

*It was then promptly purchased by a Spanish bank

Once again, it's been a while since I took the pulse of our economic Comedy of Errors. What's to blame for the long silence? Well, exhaustion maybe? Boredom? I don't think a week has gone by, in recent memory, without some End of Days lede flashing across the webs or CNN's primary-colored tickers. And, personally, I've been spending more time off the grid. Reading more, thinking more, sitting on the porch and doing less. Etc.

But, I'm making a quick return from Walden Pond to bring you a few items of interest. The Health Care Reform/Town Hall Meeting/Tea Baggers nuttery is a different post, so let's stick to market things.

1) Current unemployment rate: 9.7 % (July). Just look at that '08–'09 spike!

2) Maybe, just maybe, the seeming Ship of Fools on the stock market (who have been reacting to "less bad" news as if it were the second coming) are starting to realize the depth of the recession and that bright spots of alternating panic and enthusiasm are not simply going to go away as the market magically corrects itself over the course of a year or two (which is the refrain we heard so much this spring and last fall). The stock market has been a rather poor barometer of market health specifically because of this reactionary hula-hooping.

3) Bank Failures! A favorite topic in these round-ups of mine. This time it's Colonial BancGroup, a quiet powerhouse that most of us probably haven't heard of. Their fingers (fists, really) have been in the warehouse lending market. Even though BB&T is buying the troubled company, the collapse will create ripple effects that people will feel in the housing market, since the Colonial failure is the sixth largest in U.S. history and 100 times larger than the typical failure this year. Won't that be a shot in the arm to the "recovering" housing industry?

4) Monetization! What a great idea. See, when a government can't get the public to buy its bonds (thereby re-directing some of a nation's intentionally limited cash to public debt), the Central Bank has no choice but to buy the debt back itself, which means that said government is buying its own debt with the money it doesn't have. Neat, huh? Over the course of a sustained recession, this practice usually leads to inflation, and if bond auctions fail severely enough, often enough, well, them's the End of Days. Luckily, the Fed has realized it might need to be more sneaky about this.

5) We're running out of sugar? So, it's going to be a salty apocalypse?

6) And finally, "Goldman: Get Ready For Oil Prices To Go Back To $147 [per barrel]". So, if things do stabilize, we'll be immediately slammed by fuel prices. Won't that be a laugh?

So, there you have it—a whirlwind overview of the last week's (or so) economic hay ride. Myself, I don't buy that things are stabilizing or recovering (the 500k+ new applicants for unemployment last week might agree with me), but I understand that it's pretty to think so.

Rachel Kendall, the editor behind Sein und Werden, tipped me off to new startup 'zine: Artifice Magazine. The submissions wishlist is an interstitialist's dream.

Go have a look—my submission is already in the pipe.

Sent to me by Haj.

Farrago's Wainscot, Issue 11 is now live, featuring fiction by Paul Abbamondi, Forrest Aguirre, Autumn Canter, Edward Morris, Mari Ness, and Angie Smibert. Issue 11 also features poetry by Lee Stern, Amy Riddle, William Doreski, and Mark DeCarteret—as well as an experimental wordform by Mike Keith.

photo © GETTY

Only one link for you today. There's been too much going on in my boat lately—I can't keep up.

US cities may have to be bulldozed in order to survive.

Don't be fooled, kids. You're hearing a lot about the upturn. How it's beginning; how signs are starting to appear. Meanwhile, particularly in the west, unemployment continues to rise. Sure, it'll end eventually, but not this year.

My sweet, sweet girl. There's never been anyone like you.

I kept my promise: I bought you a cat tower with money from a professional book sale.

Thanks for the memories.

I'm sorry.

It's back! But let's be easy about this—take this nice and slow, like. Just a few links to ruin your weekend this time.



"FDIC gives up on Silverton Bank"

Sometimes banks are just so difficult. I mean, who can blame the FDIC. Silverton just needs some time to stand in the corner and think about what it did.

"States propose $24 billion in tax hikes"

You know, most of us like taxes. In theory. We like schools and roads and an economic infrastructure. But as cute as tax hikes are, soon, taxes are simply going to become what we're fans of paying. Not what we can actually pay.

"The new 'good' job: 12 bucks an hour"

No comment.

"U.S. dollar 'seriously overvalued' -- study"

I know, right. So, everybody stop making such a big deal about the dollar. Clearly, it's not worth it.

"German debts set to blow 'like a grenade'"

Ok, stop making a fuss about the German economy, too. Also not worth it.

And my favorite . . .

"Pastor Organizes Gun Celebration at Church"

You have got to be god-damned kidding me. That's just too precious for words.

And terrifying.

Doug Lain (who edits Diet Soap and who wrote my favorite short story collection, Last Week's Apocalypse) interviews me about Amaranth, cognitive theory, and the apocalypse.

So, give us a listen. The conversation was a lot of fun, and my voice doesn't sound as terrible as I feared it would.

Well, I didn't make it to WFC last year, or WisCon this year, but I'll be at WFC this year, in San Jose. The particular gaggle of dudes with whom I'll be sharing one of two rooms is, well, frightening.

So, anyway, it'll be good to see those of yous who'll be there.

John Klima reminds us that World Fantasy Award nominations are, like, due. Soon, anyway. Get your nominations in if you're eligible.

(Mr. Klima also kindly points out in his nominations that myself am eligible for a "Special Award, Non-professional" award for my work with the Old Man (a.k.a. Farrago's Wainscot). But so is Mr. Klima himself—and so is the third member of the often-publishing-the-same-authors-at-different-times-manourzinesaresimilarbutdifferent-trio, Matt Kressel.)

Here's my unofficial campaigning-for-nominations picture:


Note: in the background, miscreants—not to be confused with my campaign.

So give us a think, or a nomination, as you see fit.

Sure, the general dégringolade of Western Power offers up delicious blog fodder, but sometimes, it's more serious than a few lines in cheeky journal like mine.

First, a report by the Dept. of Homeland Security warning us that today's sociopolitical pressure systems may form a perfect right-wing extremist storm.

And we saw on Sunday that a doctor (who provided abortions) was murdered in his church by this disturbed person.

We've seen a largely nation-wide shift in power away from conservatism*, which is creating a power vacuum that, paired with increased unemployment and economic uncertainty, makes a good Straw Man for those who need something to blame life, the universe, and everything upon. Further, as we continue to take small steps toward honoring the civil rights of gay and lesbian couples; as we start to pry open the doors of stem-cell research that have been (until recently) firmly nailed shut; and as we stop neatly categorizing our national "enemies" as heartless, immoral, freedom-hating monsters—after all of this, I fear we're going to see even more acts of social disturbance. Why? People need explanations for things that go bump in the night, and our best stories come from gods and monsters.

*I'm using "conservatism" to make a general point here. Discussions of his centrist or crypto-conservative leanings notwithstanding.

I've fallen behind on keeping you all posted about your impending doom. Some things have happened since my last update: a website redesign, some novel proposals, web design . . . that sort of thing.

But anyway . . .

(From roxana: "Colleges Considering 3-Year Degrees to Save Undergrads Time, Money")

Didn't I tell you that higher education is screwed? Keep watching.

So, last year, snurri told me about FutureMe.org, a service that allows you to post-date an email to yourself for delivery on some future date.

It sounded fun, and it was around the time of my birthday. Thinking of the birthday-to-come this year (30), I typed myself up something motivational and self-congratulatory and life-affirming and all of that. There was also a bit of your usual "Don't get frustrated about publishing" business.

What's cute is that I sold Amaranth about two weeks after that.

So, in the end, Old Self got pwned by Future Self!

yuki_onna's recent birthday post reminded me that I turn 30 in four days.

Well, okay. I s'pose there's no fighting it.

Paul Jessup's Glass Coffin Girls, the sixth volume in PS Publishing's "Showcase" series.

Originally published at Darin Bradley.